Winter continues to be kind to Summit County and Colorado. The past few weeks\u2019 snowy goodness is providing a rare, rosier outlook for drought and wildfire conditions in the summer \u2014 if the timing is right.<\/p>\n
According to the National Weather and Climate Center, snowpack is at 114 percent of normal in the Upper Colorado Headwaters basin, which includes Summit County. Strong snowstorms passing through the last few weeks and cold temperatures have kept the pack healthy.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe snowpack to date is certainly an encouraging sign,\u201d said Peter Goble, drought specialist at the Colorado Climate Center. \u201cSnowpack in Summit County has been above normal, if we were to get even average snowpack from now onward, we\u2019ll be in pretty good shape for water in the summer.\u201d<\/p>\n
The National Climate Prediction Center is also forecasting above-average precipitation for the region over the next three months. Precipitaiton so far this winter has enhanced drought outlook, with the National Drought Monitor seeing improving conditions in western Colorado.<\/p>\n
However, there are still two hard barriers before the years-long drought is broken. The first is the timing of the snowmelt. The other is how much of it will actually wind up in rivers and reservoirs due to moisture deficits from years before.<\/p>\n
This year has seen a very healthy early snowpack. However, even with good snow, an early spring can mean much of it gets dried up before the hottest days of summer arrive.<\/p>\n
\u201cOne concern we always have in the back of our minds for an early snowpack is that a longer warm season can deplete the moisture that the snowpack normally provides,\u201d Goble said. \u201cThat makes the region marginally more vulnerable to fires. From a drought perspective, you want a later snow melt for more water later in the summer.\u201d<\/p>\n
That means the timing of the snowmelt is critical. In the Upper Colorado, snowmelt typically shouldn\u2019t start really rolling down until early May. In 2018, the snowmelt started two weeks earlier, in April \u2014 when snowpack is usually meant to peak. By the time June rolled around most of the snow was gone. That two-week difference dried up the snowmelt early and set up a devastating wildfire season across the West.<\/p>\n
Even if the snow starts melting down the valleys and into the rivers on time, the thirst lingers from previous years, with a running tab on soil moisture that needs to be paid. Goble said that despite above average snowpack in 2017, the spring runoff that year turned out to be merely average because of how dry 2016 was.<\/p>\n
2018 saw a bit of a perfect storm for wildfire conditions, with snowmelt beginning early and drying out well before summer really began. All of that dryness last year left a negative balance when it comes to soil moisture. So when the runoff does start in 2019, a lot of it will go into the ground and stay out of the rivers.<\/p>\n
\u201cOne concern on the heels of bad drought year in 2018 is that we know when the snow melts we have some dry soil profiles to fill,\u201d Goble said. \u201cIt\u2019s probable a greater fraction of the snowpack will go directly into the soil. That\u2019s good for the forest of course, and fuel moisture, but also a bit troubling from a water supply perspective.\u201d<\/p>\n
To avoid another nasty wildfire season, the bottom line is to hope winter lasts as long as possible, and that the High Country does not see snow start melting until May. For the moment, things look like they\u2019re on the ideal path.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe short-term picture is encouraging, and the seasonal outlook also encouraging,\u201d Goble said. \u201cI\u2019m cautiously optimistic for a much better summer this year.\u201d<\/p>\n