{"id":1314601,"date":"2019-09-13T20:12:00","date_gmt":"2019-09-14T02:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.postindependent.com\/polman-column-would-an-economic-trump-slump-doom-his-re-election\/"},"modified":"2019-09-13T20:12:00","modified_gmt":"2019-09-14T02:12:00","slug":"polman-column-would-an-economic-trump-slump-doom-his-re-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske\/local-news\/polman-column-would-an-economic-trump-slump-doom-his-re-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Polman column: Would an economic \u2018Trump Slump\u2019 doom his re-election?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
Dick Polman<\/strong>
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The last three incumbent presidents to lose their reelection bids \u2014 Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 \u2014 were fatally burdened by a sluggish or recessionary economy.<\/p>\n

Bear that in mind as a new Quinnipiac poll reports that for the first time during Trump\u2019s presidency, a plurality of registered voters (37 percent) believe the economy is getting worse, not better (31 percent). The pessimistic camp is 14 points larger than it was in June, thanks largely to the climate of uncertainty triggered by Trump\u2019s tit-for-tat tariff fight with China, which is threatening to raise consumer prices and is already making it tougher for businesses to map their futures.<\/p>\n

Of course, there\u2019s no guarantee that a sliding economy will doom him. Regardless, he\u2019s already trying to shift the blame to \u2026 guess who?<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Fake News LameStream Media is doing everything possible (to) \u2018create\u2019 a U.S. recession.\u201d<\/p>\n

Well, that seems a tad unfair \u2013 given the fact that the media is merely doing its job, quoting a wide range of experts such as:<\/p>\n

Diane Swonk, chief economist of the Grant Thornton international accounting firm, who says: \u201cWe\u2019re losing momentum. \u2026 The trade effects are slowing through the economy. \u2026 They snowball over time.\u201d<\/p>\n

And Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities: \u201cThe trade war is weighing on manufacturing.\u201d<\/p>\n

And Thomas Collamore, former executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce: \u201cThe uncertainty created by additional tariffs or threats of more is causing business to pause and sit on their hands.\u201d<\/p>\n

And the purchase managers at the Institute for Supply Management, which reported last Tuesday that U.S. manufacturing contracted in August for the first time in three years. In addition, export orders fell to the lowest level since the depths of the Great Recession in early 2009, thanks to the uncertainty sowed by the trade war.<\/p>\n

And Michael Steel, a former high-ranking Republican aide on Capitol Hill, who says: \u201cRight now it feels like (Trump and his people) are riding a rubber ducky into alligator-infested waters.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump is also trying to blame the current climate on \u201cbadly run and weak companies,\u201d but companies contend that the uncertainty sowed by his trade war is wreaking havoc with their decision-making. Should they dump their Chinese suppliers, as Trump recently \u201chereby ordered\u201d them to do? Should they plan to raise retail prices and forego new hiring, as a hedge against more uncertainty? As the CEO of a toy-making firm recently told CNBC, \u201cAs soon as \u2026 we start to move, (Trump) is going to put a target on somebody else\u2019s back, and where do we go from there?\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s impossible right now to determine whether, or to what extent, this uncertainty will resonate with the electorate \u2014 if the past is prologue, the status of the economy in the second quarter of 2020 is likely to be crucial \u2014 but it\u2019s safe to say that Trump has little margin for error. Despite the fact that most Americans have generally viewed the economy as strong during his tempestuous tenure, he has never scored 50 percent approval (the only president, in the history of polling, never to inhabit positive territory). Without a good economy, what else can he offer?<\/p>\n

On the other hand, the unprecedented polarization in the electorate probably guarantees that Trump\u2019s base will stay loyal no matter what. Even if some of his loyalists are suffering the financial effects of his tariff war, they\u2019ll likely follow Trump\u2019s lead \u2014 blaming the media, fearing that the \u201csocialist\u201d Democrats will make things worse. In the words of Rachel Bitecofer, an election expert who accurately predicted the size of the 2018 Democratic midterm wave, \u201cKeep in mind, Trump controls his own information environment, and it\u2019s not only Republicans who see it.\u201d<\/p>\n

But it falls to the Democrats to craft a persuasive response. They\u2019ve tiptoed around the economic issue, fearful (they\u2019re always fearful) that they\u2019ll be accused of seeking political gain by \u201crooting\u201d for a recession. The jobless rate is also low, so it\u2019s not political ammo. And they\u2019re busy dueling with each other over whether capitalism should be tweaked (Joe Biden) or systemically reformed (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders).<\/p>\n

However, if the climate of uncertainty becomes toxic and the trade war bites hard at home, Democrats will need to build on what Biden said over the weekend in New Hampshire: Trump is becoming \u201cmore erratic. \u2026 He inherited a pretty good economy from Barack Obama, just like he inherited everything in his life.\u201d<\/p>\n

The economy meets the character issue. It\u2019s a start.<\/p>\n

Copyright 2019 Dick Polman, distributed exclusively by Cagle Cartoons newspaper syndicate. Dick Polman is the national political columnist at WHYY in Philadelphia and a \u201cWriter in Residence\u201d at the University of Pennsylvania. Email him at dickpolman7@gmail.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

via:: Post Independent<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dick Polman The last three incumbent presidents to lose their reelection bids \u2014 Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 \u2014 were fatally burdened by a sluggish or recessionary economy. Bear that in mind as a new Quinnipiac poll reports that for the first time during Trump\u2019s presidency, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[160],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1314601","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-local-news"},"acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-06-27 10:30:26","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"distributor_meta":false,"distributor_terms":false,"distributor_media":false,"distributor_original_site_name":"KSKE Ski Country","distributor_original_site_url":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske","push-errors":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1314601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1314601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1314601\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1314601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1314601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kske\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1314601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}