{"id":805473,"date":"2020-03-19T19:02:02","date_gmt":"2020-03-20T01:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.summitdaily.com\/?p=380745"},"modified":"2020-03-19T19:02:02","modified_gmt":"2020-03-20T01:02:02","slug":"opinion-susan-knopf-out-of-an-abundance-of-caution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt\/local-news\/opinion-susan-knopf-out-of-an-abundance-of-caution\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion | Susan Knopf: Out of an abundance of caution"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image p402_hide\">\n<div class=\"caption-container\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"819\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.summitdaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/10\/SusanKnopf_h-1024x819.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-post-image\" alt srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.summitdaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/10\/SusanKnopf_h-1024x819.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cdn.summitdaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/10\/SusanKnopf_h-300x240.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cdn.summitdaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/10\/SusanKnopf_h-768x614.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"><figcaption><strong>Susan Knopf<\/strong><br \/><em><\/em><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Did you see the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.denverpost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/mckeetoon.jpg?w=620\">cartoon on social media<\/a>? Guy sitting in front of his laptop says, That\u2019s odd: My Facebook friends who were constitutional scholars just a month ago are now infectious disease experts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t claim to be an expert, but I have wondered a great deal about our nation\u2019s pandemic playbook.<\/p>\n<p>I was confused when our governor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.colorado.gov\/governor\/news\/gov-polis-issues-executive-order-suspending-down-hill-ski-area-operations-one-week\">shut down the ski areas<\/a>. You can play frisbee golf in a public park in Denver, but you can\u2019t go skiing? I bet Vail announced its shutdown to protect the ski mega giant from being sued \u2014 by employees and customers.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI bet the governor took his lead from Vail,\u201d said Dr. Glen Mays, professor and chair of the Department of Health Systems, Management and Policy at Colorado School of Public Health. \u201cThese are political moves. They have to worry about being too far out in front of public opinion.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Mays is working from home, just like the rest of us. \u201cEconomic impact is going to be massive,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s because this isn\u2019t going to be just a couple of weeks. Mays expects the shelter at home order to remain in effect a minimum of eight weeks. That takes us into mid-May. Mud season just went from six weeks to three months, and we lost our single best month of the year. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azcentral.com\/story\/opinion\/op-ed\/philboas\/2020\/02\/12\/new-hampshire-primary-leaves-no-consensus-how-stop-trump\/4601967002\/\">Virus mitigation and suppression<\/a> could continue 12-18 months, according to experts.<\/p>\n<p>Mays explains that authorities are looking at the progress of COVID-19 in China, where the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/news-desk\/what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-in-the-us?source=EDT_NYR_EDIT_NEWSLETTER_0_imagenewsletter_Daily_ZZ&amp;utm_campaign=aud-dev&amp;utm_source=nl&amp;utm_brand=tny&amp;utm_mailing=TNY_Daily_031720&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;bx\">first outbreak occurred<\/a>. They are also watching how it is spreading like wildfire through Europe. For the record:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedaily.com\/releases\/2020\/03\/200310164744.htm\">new study<\/a> from Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Health reports the \u201cmedian disease incubation period\u201d is 5.1 days.<\/li>\n<li>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/symptoms-testing\/symptoms.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fabout%2Fsymptoms.html#f1\">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention<\/a> reports it may take 2-14 days following exposure to show symptoms. Dr. Sanjay Gupta reported on CNN that Chinese data shows 80% of those diagnosed with COVID-19 contracted it from someone who did not know they were infected.<\/li>\n<li>Mays says that\u2019s one reason why COVID-19 is more than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/future-perfect\/2020\/3\/12\/21172040\/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts\">twice as contagious<\/a> as the flu.<\/li>\n<li>Vox reports COVID-19 is more than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/future-perfect\/2020\/3\/12\/21172040\/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts\">twice as deadly<\/a> as the flu.<\/li>\n<li>Those <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/future-perfect\/2020\/3\/12\/21172040\/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts\">60 and older<\/a> are most at risk of dying, according to China\u2019s data.<\/li>\n<li>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf\">National Institutes of Health<\/a> study found the virus lingers in the air and on surfaces far longer than flu viruses. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<li>More than three hours hanging in the air<\/li>\n<li>Up to 24 hours on cardboard<\/li>\n<li>Up to 2-3 days on plastic and steel<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We are told to act as if you are infected. You can protect yourself and others. Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment advises people to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.colorado.gov\/pacific\/cdphe\/news\/cdphe-strongly-advises-all-visitors-and-residents-eagle-summit-pitkin-and-gunnison-counties\">stay away from other people<\/a>. Wash your hands for 20 seconds. Avoid touching your face, mouth, nose and eyes. Don\u2019t be alarmed, don\u2019t confuse every virus with coronavirus. COVID-19 patients have fever, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/future-perfect\/2020\/3\/12\/21172040\/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts\">reportedly 87.9%.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Back to the pandemic playbook. Mays says in \u201c2007-2008 the federal government spent billions of dollars to support pandemic planning. Those plans are not specific when you put provisions into play.\u201d Colorado does have a specific plan for a biological event on page 107 of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.colorado.gov\/pacific\/dhsem\/state-eop\">Colorado State Emergency Plan<\/a>. It\u2019s online!<\/p>\n<p>With the emergency plan in place, Mays says he hopes the worst case scenario will be avoided. He says CDC modelers estimate U.S. deaths may reach 200,000 to 1.7 million. &nbsp;Some math you should know: We have about 160,000 ventilators in the U.S. We have at least 10,000 in emergency reserve. But we may need more than 300,000 ventilators to meet the need of our citizens who become critically ill from COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p>The shortfall is a direct consequence of our for-profit health care system. Mays says, \u201cIt\u2019s the heart of the ethical issue.\u201d We need to consider how we are cheated by the for-profit health care model. One of the critical issues is the lack of hospital beds.<\/p>\n<p>Our health care system is optimized for profit. Mays says, \u201chospitals have not maintained excess capacity\u201d for some theoretical future pandemic. We have fewer than three hospital beds for each 1,000 Americans. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds\">we are ranked 32nd<\/a> in the world in hospital beds per capita.<\/p>\n<p>The rationale for the quarantine is to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2020\/3\/10\/21171481\/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation\">\u201cflatten the curve.\u201d<\/a> We need to slow the spread so we don\u2019t overwhelm hospitals and health care providers.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately this fall, health care will be on the ballot here in Colorado and in the national election. We need to vote for ourselves. We need to vote for our health. Vote for substantive health care system change. If we are going to improve how health care is delivered, we need to change how it is monetized.<\/p>\n<p><em>Susan Knopf\u2019s column \u201cFor The Record\u201d publishes Fridays in the Summit Daily News. Knopf has worn many hats in her career, including working as an award-winning journalist and certified ski instructor. She moved to Silverthorne in 2013 after vacationing in Summit County since the 1970s. Contact her at <a href=\"mailto:sdnknopf@gmail.com\">sdnknopf@gmail.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.summitdaily.com\/opinion\/opinion-susan-knopf-out-of-an-abundance-of-caution\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">via:: Summit Daily<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Susan Knopf Did you see the cartoon on social media? Guy sitting in front of his laptop says, That\u2019s odd: My Facebook friends who were constitutional scholars just a month ago are now infectious disease experts.\u201d I don\u2019t claim to be an expert, but I have wondered a great deal about our nation\u2019s pandemic playbook. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[99],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-805473","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-local-news"},"acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-07-18 21:23:32","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"distributor_meta":false,"distributor_terms":false,"distributor_media":false,"distributor_original_site_name":"KSMT The Mountain","distributor_original_site_url":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt","push-errors":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/805473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=805473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/805473\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=805473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=805473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/ksmt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=805473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}