{"id":2456885,"date":"2020-04-07T14:47:12","date_gmt":"2020-04-07T20:47:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aspentimes.com\/?p=323932"},"modified":"2020-04-07T14:47:12","modified_gmt":"2020-04-07T20:47:12","slug":"three-coronavirus-models-have-very-different-takes-on-how-colorados-outbreak-will-develop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alwaysmountaintime.com\/kspn\/local-news\/three-coronavirus-models-have-very-different-takes-on-how-colorados-outbreak-will-develop\/","title":{"rendered":"Three coronavirus models have very different takes on how Colorado\u2019s outbreak will develop"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A projection for hospitalizations in Colorado from COVID-19 by the group Covid Act Now, captured on April 6, 2020.<\/strong>
Screenshot from covidactnow.org<\/em><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

There is no crystal ball to show the future of the coronavirus pandemic, but researchers across the country have been working quickly to come up with the next best thing: an accurate statistical model.<\/p>\n

These are the now-familiar arcing graphs showing case numbers rising above hospital capacity \u2014 or, hopefully, not rising above capacity \u2014 and then dipping back down. But, because the coronavirus is so new, there\u2019s no scientific consensus about how contagious it is and what percentage of people stricken by it will require hospitalization.<\/p>\n

That makes the current models vary quite a bit and, in turn, means policymakers have to essentially pick their model when deciding how to respond to the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. You see this playing out now in disputes between the federal and state governments \u2014 where states are preparing hospitals for massive patient surges that the feds say won\u2019t arrive.<\/p>\n

This uncertainty in modeling is particularly evident in Colorado. One model last week showed the state likely coming up thousands of hospital beds short of what it needs. Then, this week, that same model updated to say Colorado is already past its peak, even as the state continues to build up treatment capacity.<\/p>\n

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